Tariff Deals

Apr. 22nd, 2025 03:30 pm
[syndicated profile] atrios_feed
We keep making them.
The US Commerce Department has announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 3,521% on imports of solar panels from four South East Asian countries.

This is the kind of thing where you can make a case for protecting a domestic infant industry against dumping, but in the current context...
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A maddening thing about the "we need to talk about kitchen table issues" tic is that it's almost entirely a meta conversation, with lead Democrats going on TV and saying it's what they need to talk about instead of actually talking about it. 

Jeffries on Sunday, the relevant bits:

Leader Jeffries, thank you for being here. Let me get right at what you were saying, because I also heard you say that Republicans are breaking the economy and will own all of the damage that is being done to the American people. So, what are Democrats going to do about it?

JEFFRIES: Well, we're going to continue to make clear that the cost of living in the United States of America is too high. Donald Trump and Republicans promised to lower the cost of living. In fact, on day one, costs aren't going down. They are going up. And they are crashing the economy in real time and, in fact, driving us toward a recession.

Democrats have a different vision. We want to build an affordable economy for hardworking American taxpayers, and we're ready to work with anyone in good faith to get that done. But that's not occurring in the Congress right now, which is why things are heading in a bad direction.

KARL: But let me ask you about a Gallup poll that came out recently, asking people how much confidence they have in various people to -- to deal with the economy. And Donald Trump only -- you know, 44 percent have a great deal or fair amount of confidence, but that was -- GOP leaders were next, the Fed Chairman, the Speaker of the House. And when you get down to the bottom, Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer down at the bottom. You had only 30 percent.

So, what do Democrats have to do to convince the American people that they have a better plan on the economy than the Republicans?

JEFFRIES: Well, this week, we'll be having a cost of living week of action, and we have to continue to talk to the American people about our plans. We recognize that housing costs are too high, grocery costs are too high, utility costs are too high, childcare costs are too high, insurance costs are too high. America is too expensive.

Now, Donald Trump is the president. And in terms of his approval as it relates to the economy, it was his biggest strength on January 20th. Now, it's his greatest weakness.

There are a variety of different polls that are out there, including most recently a Morning Consult poll, that showed that Congressional Democrats were actually trusted more than Congressional Republicans on the economy for the first time in four years.

We're going to continue to press our case on the economy, continue to press our case on protecting and strengthening Social Security, which is what we are committed to do. Republicans are trying to detonate Social Security as we know it. And certainly, we're going to protect the healthcare of the American people.

The only "plan" here is defending the status quo! Which is important at the moment!  But that was basically the November 2024 message also!  

We are going to keep talking about our plans, he says, while not taking a prime opportunity to talk about those plans. 

 

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Posted by Scott Lemieux

Who amongst us has not left 3 grand in cash and a passport lying around on a family shopping trip in the city in which you reside?

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem‘s purse was stolen Sunday night at a Washington, D.C. restaurant. At the time, the bag contained a number of sensitive personal items including Noem’s driver’s license, passport, DHS access badge, checks and roughly $3,000 in cash, according to three sources briefed, including two law enforcement officials.   

The Secret Service is reviewing security camera footage at the restaurant and has identified a White male suspect who was allegedly wearing a medical mask during the theft. The individual was not immediately spotted by her Secret Service detail, with the bag being discovered lost by Noem herself. 

Noem was dining at The Capital Burger, a popular and busy locale near DC’s downtown. Her purse was placed against her foot underneath her seat, according to two sources familiar. 

Noem’s cell phone was not in the purse, but credit cards, makeup and medication were among the items stolen. 

Given Noem’s past, I really would not like to be the responsible Secret Service agents right now. Anyway, there’s a very simple explanation:

A lot of people don't know this, but not a single restaurant or shop in Washington DC accepts credit or debit cards. All transactions are done in cash — unless, say, you want to trade a $50,000 Rolex for a delicious plate of fettuccine. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/21/u…

[image or embed]

— Bill Grueskin (@bgrueskin.bsky.social) April 21, 2025 at 1:19 PM

This sequel to Burn After Reading has been less entertaining than I expected.

The post Kristi Noem, International Woman of Mystery appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

Seems Bad

Apr. 22nd, 2025 12:38 pm
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Drunk man walking.
WASHINGTON — Minutes before U.S. fighter jets took off to begin strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen last month, Army Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, who leads U.S. Central Command, used a secure U.S. government system to send detailed information about the operation to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The material Kurilla sent included details about when U.S. fighters would take off and when they would hit their targets — details that could, if they fell into the wrong hands, put the pilots of those fighters in grave danger. But he was doing exactly what he was supposed to: providing Hegseth, his superior, with information he needed to know and using a system specifically designed to safely transmit sensitive and classified information.

But then Hegseth used his personal phone to send some of the same information Kurilla had given him to at least two group text chats on the Signal messaging app, three U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the exchanges told NBC News.

Earth Day (or is it Air Day?)

Apr. 22nd, 2025 12:47 pm
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Posted by PZ Myers

I get excited when I find a couple of delicate strands of silk*, but then Mary has to come along and gloat about all the birds she saw just yesterday:

American Crow, American Goldfinch, American Robin, Black-capped Chickadee, Blue Jay, Brown-headed Cowbird, Canada Goose, Cedar Waxwing, Chipping Sparrow, Collared Dove, Common Grackle, Common Pheasant, Common Starling, Downy Woodpecker, Eastern Phoebe, Great-tailed Grackle, Hairy Woodpecker, Hermit Thrush, House Finch, House Sparrow, Mallard, Mourning Dove, Northern Cardinal, Northern Flicker, Northern House Wren, Purple Finch, Red-bellied Woodpecker, Red-tailed Hawk, Red-winged Blackbird, Rock Dove, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Song Sparrow, White-breasted Nuthatch, White-throated Sparrow, Wood Duck, Yellow-rumped Warbler.

It’s no fair! She has set up this grand array of birdfeeders to draw in the local species.

There is ONE bird in all of that alluring food this morning.

Also unfair: stupid vertebrates. It takes a little longer for invertebrates to warm up. Give ’em time, they’ll outnumber the birds soon enough…probably already. They’re just not a bunch of show-offs.

Happy Earth Day!

* I’m also seeing silk in the compost bin, but the compost hasn’t thawed out yet. Soon!

XJSOML

Apr. 22nd, 2025 06:30 am
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Posted by Remy Porter

When Steve's employer went hunting for a new customer relationship management system (CRM), they had some requirements. A lot of them were around the kind of vendor support they'd get. Their sales team weren't the most technical people, and the company wanted to push as much routine support off to the vendor as possible.

But they also needed a system that was extensible. Steve's company had many custom workflows they wanted to be able to execute, and automated marketing messages they wanted to construct, and so wanted a CRM that had an easy to use API.

"No worries," the vendor sales rep said, "we've had a RESTful API in our system for years. It's well tested and reliable. It's JSON based."

The purchasing department ground their way through the purchase order and eventually they started migrating to the new CRM system. And it fell to Steve to start learning the JSON-based, RESTful API.

"JSON"-based was a more accurate description.

For example, an API endpoint might have a schema like:

DeliveryId:	int // the ID of the created delivery
Errors: 	xml // Collection of errors encountered

This example schema is representative. Many "JSON" documents contained strings of XML inside of them.

Often, this is done when an existing XML-based API is "modernized", but in this case, the root cause is a little dumber than that. The system uses SQL Server as its back end, and XML is one of the native types. They just have a stored procedure build an XML object and then return it as an output parameter.

You'll be surprised to learn that the vendor's support team had a similar level of care: they officially did what you asked, but sometimes it felt like malicious compliance.

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Posted by Erik Loomis

This is the grave of Joseph Burton.

Born on a farm outside of Mitchell, Indiana in 1852 (there is discrepancy between the tombstone and what is online, which happens with surprising frequency), Burton grew up reasonably well off. He was the choice of his congressman to go to the Naval Academy, but he couldn’t pass the physical. So he went to Franklin College and then DePauw, teaching for awhile, and getting involved in local Republican politics. He started reading for the bar in 1874. In this era, that was a short process and he was admitted to it the next year. He became a presidential elector for Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 and gave a lot of speeches around Indiana for him. Hayes was such an inspiring figure that it must have been exciting to hear those speeches……

In 1878, Burton decided to move to Kansas, the Rutherford B. Hayes of destinations. He and a friend had decided to start a law practice in the town of Abilene. They were successful and Kansas was also a very Republican state in this era, so it was a place where a young man could make a name for himself in politics. Burton was then elected to the state legislature in 1882 and served a few terms, though not always consecutively. Kansas named him as a representative to their official delegation to the World’s Columbian Exposition in Chicago in 1893. But what he really wanted was to be a senator. Of course this was all inside baseball before the 17th Amendment with tons of corruption involved. This is why a lot of Republicans would like to repeal the 17th Amendment today, take it back to the good ol’days of open payoffs. Burton was good at the corruption too. Well, Burton didn’t quite get there in 1895. But in the 1900-01 cycle, Kansas sent him to Washington.

As a junior senator from a meaningless state, Burton didn’t have much sway in Washington. He was named chair of the Committee on Forest Reservations and Game Protection. Not unimportant really, but I don’t think he really cared that much about it. What he really did care about was getting paid. Now, this is the Gilded Age. Do you know how openly and nakedly corrupt you had to be to win the title as the first senator to be convicted of a crime? But Burton is your man!

The story is this–there was a scam company, get rick quick scheme kind of thing, called Rialto Grain and Securities. It was about to be under indictment for fraud, which would have denied it the use of the mail. Rialto paid Burton $2500 to prevent that indictment. This is almost incredibly stupid. First, he got busted for $2500? I am sure the rest of the Senate was laughing at him for this, especially given what some of those guys had been paid by the railroads over the years. Second, he didn’t even really have the power to intervene in a useful fashion here. Total idiots all the way around.

Well, Burton was tried and convicted, forced to pay the money back, and given a six month prison sentence. He appealed to the Supreme Court. It overthrew the verdict on procedural grounds, saying that it should have been tried in DC, where the bribe was given. There, Justice Willis Van Devanter presided over the retrial, which led to the same verdict and the exact same sentence. Burton then resigned, served his sentence, and went back home to Kansas.

Burton had his law practice and he also bought some newspapers. He was still a rich guy and ended up dying in Los Angeles in 1923, at the age of 70 (or 71 if he was indeed born a year earlier than is usually reported). Later in life, he seems to have moved to the left and was a defender of the Nonpartisan League at the end of World War I, and was once attacked during a speech. As his enemies worked up the mob against him, they all reminded everyone that Burton was a corrupt embarrassment. That part was true enough.

Joseph Burton is buried in Abilene Cemetery, Abilene, Kansas.

If you would like this series to visit other senators elected in the 1900 elections, you can donate to cover the required expenses here. Robert Gamble is in Yankton, South Dakota and F.M. Simmons is in New Bern, North Carolina. Previous posts in this series are archived here and here.

The post Erik Visits an American Grave, Part 1,869 appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

Spidersign!

Apr. 22nd, 2025 10:45 am
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Posted by PZ Myers

I’ve been checking this one spot along my walk to work all Spring, a row of metal signposts along a parking lot. These are simply dark metal objects that absorb what heat there is, and while they look barren and uninteresting, they have been a reliable home for a population of small spiders.

On Sunday, I saw nothing there. Yesterday, Monday, I saw this:

It’s silk. Just a few strands of spider silk across the bar, telling me that spiders have moved in. All of the signposts have silk to varying degrees, suggesting that maybe there was a recent hatch and a spider swarm is repopulating the area.

It’s reassuring to see, even as I’m buried under grading. Just two weeks to go before the semester ends and 6 months of sabbatical begins.

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Posted by Sean Rameswaram

Ron DeSantis with his two thumbs up.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has made public education ground zero in the culture wars. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Over the last few months, the Trump administration has intensified its attacks on elite, Ivy League institutions like Columbia and Harvard, enacting sweeping funding cuts and even threatening to revoke their tax-exempt status.

But what’s happening on the campuses of state schools is much less covered. Take for example the public university system in Florida. For years, Gov. Ron DeSantis has used public schools at all levels as the battleground for what he calls a war on “woke” — and punched his ticket to national prominence.

And it’s Florida where journalist Josh Moody found his most recent exposé for Inside Higher Ed. 

Though elite universities in the Northeast have largely fought deportation efforts spearheaded by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, DeSantis has openly cooperated with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, even appointing university presidents who are friendly to this mission.

Today, Explained host Sean Rameswaram spoke with Moody about his findings, which uncovered formal cooperation agreements between many of Florida’s public universities and ICE that has led to revoked visas, alarmed faculties, and student protests.

Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.

What’s going on here with the Florida state schools? Is this a rebrand to ICE-U? What are they doing here? 

You’ve probably not heard of some of these schools because it’s the Florida State University system, which has 12 members, ranging from large schools with tens of thousands of students to New College of Florida, which has about 800 students. At least 10 of those institutions have signed agreements with ICE, which essentially would give their campus police departments immigration enforcement powers, allowing them to question, arrest, and prepare charges for those they suspect of immigration violations.

These agreements, as one expert explained to me, are “force multipliers for ICE.”

And basically these agreements, as one expert explained to me, are “force multipliers for ICE.” So if you wanted to have more immigration enforcement, you would sign an agreement with ICE to delegate that power locally. This is just a way for Florida to expand its immigration enforcement capabilities. The governor, as I mentioned before, has taken a hard line on immigration. 

He ran for president previously. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does so again, and that could be part of his long-term strategy. In this way, he’s sort of outflanking Trump on immigration. 

And this is just a fun question I love to ask while we’re talking about this stuff. Where did Ron DeSantis go to school again? 

Yale, right? Or was it Harvard? 

It was both! Anyway, have any students been detained or deported yet at these Florida state schools like we’ve seen at Columbia? 

Eighteen students at Florida International University and eight students at the University of Florida have had their visas revoked.

What does that mean? Were they deported?

They would have to leave the country. It doesn’t necessarily mean that ICE is going to come scoop them up in a van and facilitate that process, but they would essentially have to begin the process of leaving the country. 

And do we know what specifically these students have had their visas revoked for? 

We do not, but that is not uncommon. That has been the case across the US. Some students have been targeted for their speech. You look at the situation at Tufts and Columbia where students were active in pro-Palestinian protests and the Trump administration has claimed they’re antisemitic and pro-Hamas, but has not provided any evidence that they have done anything illegal. In other cases, they’ve had visas revoked for crimes committed years ago.

And these institutions themselves have often been given no explanation when student statuses were changed — and sometimes they’ve discovered it by looking in their own systems and seeing that those statuses had been revoked.

We don’t know how many international students have been caught up in this, but one of my fellow reporters at Inside Higher Ed is keeping a nationwide database and we have counted at least 1,680 students at 250 colleges who have lost visas. [Editor’s note: These figures reflect the latest numbers and have been updated since this Today, Explained episode first aired.

Does that mean there are other university systems around the country that are signing these kinds of agreements with ICE, that are cooperating with ICE at this level? 

Florida institutions are the only ones to have signed agreements with ICE. The professors that I spoke with, the legal experts for this piece, believe this is unprecedented. Neither were aware of another university ever signing into what is known as a 287(g) agreement with ICE. It’s sort of a new frontier in immigration enforcement on college campuses.

Are students on the campuses of these universities upset to hear that they’re signing into agreements with ICE? 

Yes. There were protests at Florida International University today, which had a board meeting. The students that I hear from are often upset about what is happening in the state, not just around immigration, but what has been a broader effort by Florida Republicans to control all aspects of the university, whether that is hiring politicians and lawmakers into the presidencies or overhauling general education requirements to minimize certain disciplines — like sociology — that Florida state officials have deemed liberal.

How do you feel what’s going on at ICE-U down in Florida fits into this other fight that we’re seeing in the Northeast, with Trump going to war with the elite universities?

In Florida, this is being done by the state dictating to these universities: “You need to do this to basically carry out state goals around immigration enforcement.” Whereas the other examples at places like Harvard and Columbia is the Trump administration more or less trying to bring higher education to heel, by making an example of some of the most visible universities, where there have been the most visible pro-Palestinian campus protests over the last year.

If they crumble, it seems only likely that your local institution is going to crumble when faced with the same threats.

People are really freaked out. Professors are worried about academic freedom. But also nationally, people are worried too. They see Harvard and Columbia being at the forefront of this fight, and even though they’re not at all representative of higher education broadly, these are very visible universities that everyone pays attention to. If they crumble, it seems only likely that your local institution is going to crumble when faced with the same threats.

On the show today, we’ve been talking about these two extremes in this culture war right now. On one end, you’ve got the oldest and most prestigious universities in the country. Then, over here, we’ve got this pocket of Florida state schools that are just throwing up their hands and complying with ICE. Where does that leave in your estimation, everyone in between those two extremes?

A lot of that comes down to public or private control. If you are a public university in a dark red state, you should expect that this is coming. If you are at a public university in Texas, you might not be that far behind Florida in terms of an action like this and that’s what I’m hearing from experts too. If you’re in a blue state, you are a little bit more isolated if you’re a public institution there. Private institutions in both will have a lot more latitude.

I don’t like to speculate, but I think it is entirely possible that the Trump administration looks at something like this and says, “Why don’t we do this nationwide?”

What a time.

Absolutely.

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Posted by Nicole Narea

A woman takes a look at the interior of a kitchen appliance at an electronics and appliances retailer.
Economists say the spike in certain spending is neither sustainable nor evidence of a healthy economy. | Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

It’s not just the stock market.

In the few weeks since President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs, a series of indicators from across the economy suggest anxiety — or even outright panic — is in the economic driver’s seat.

Consumer confidence is at a near-record low. People are panic-buying products that are likely to see major price hikes soon, from cars to consumer electronics. Businesses are also already predicting a slowdown in production, suggesting that Trump’s tariffs are actually working against his stated — and likely impossible — goal of reviving American manufacturing

This has a real impact on the health of the US economy. Confident consumers spend and support confident businesses, which fuel economic growth and hire workers. Trump can’t achieve his goals of onshoring manufacturing and ushering in a golden era of American prosperity when both consumers and businesses are spooked. 

It might be too early to tell whether Trump’s tariffs will lead to a recession, but it’s clear that they are already shifting economic activity in the US. Here’s what the data show.

Consumers are shopping scared

The leading metric of consumer confidence is the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index, which measures how favorable Americans feel about the economy based on their responses to a series of survey questions.

That index plunged immediately after Trump’s tariffs, down to 50.9 — lower than during the Great Recession and close to the historic low in the period following the Covid-19 pandemic.

This suggests that Trump’s tariffs are not just sending shockwaves through the stock market, but also the pocketbooks of everyday Americans, who were already struggling with the aftermath of high inflation.

Trump’s tariffs have made consumers pessimistic.

Economists expect that consumers will eventually pull back on spending as a result. But in the short term, they appear to be stocking up. But economists say the spike in certain spending is neither sustainable nor evidence of a healthy economy.

“When you announce you’re doing tariffs in two weeks, that’s going to lead to a big decline in spending in two weeks, but it may lead to a really big increase in spending in the short term,” said Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive economic think tank. “I bought a bunch of parts to fix my really old car.”

He’s not the only one: In March, motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a 5.3 percent increase in sales from the previous month and an 8.8 percent rise from the same month last year. Trump had, at that point, announced 25 percent tariffs on fully assembled automobiles, scheduled to take effect by May 3.

In March, electronics and appliance stores also saw a 0.8 percent increase from February and a 1.8 percent increase from the same month last year. China is one of the world’s largest producers of consumer electronics, and Trump had been talking about hitting it with tariffs for months at that point. 

Trump has since offered a limited exception for consumer electronics from his baseline 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports, but it’s not clear how much that will insulate those products from price hikes. Trump has also said that consumer electronics could face additional, yet-to-be-announced tariffs on products that contain semiconductors.

American manufacturing is in trouble

Trump has promised that “jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country” as a result of his tariffs. His hope is that, in making it more expensive to import foreign goods, companies will seek to invest in bringing their production to the US, therefore bringing prices down for American consumers in the long run. He also claims that the tariffs will stop other countries from “cheating” America with trade imbalances.

However, economists were skeptical of those claims from the outset. The Economist called the tariffs the “most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era,” based on an “utterly deluded” understanding of economics and history.

Now, the data shows that Trump’s tariffs are having the opposite of their intended effect: US manufacturing has slowed in the weeks since he made the announcement, and economists expect that trend to continue

Surveys of American manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia revealed a pessimistic outlook. Both expectations for general business activity and for new product orders declined sharply in April.

The New York Fed’s future general business conditions index dropped from 12.7 in March to 7.4 this month, its second-lowest reading in more than two decades. The Philadelphia Fed’s new order index dropped from 8.7 in March to -34.2 this month, its lowest reading since April 2020, just after the pandemic began. 

US manufacturing is already slowing.

That’s bad news for the businesses that Trump said would benefit from his tariff policies, but are now struggling to plan for the months and years ahead in an environment of such uncertainty. In an effort to convince him to abandon the tariffs, some American manufacturers have avoided criticizing them directly and instead sought to promote how much they are already investing heavily in their US factories

But it’s not clear that even overtures from American manufacturing leaders and panic among consumers will persuade Trump to give up his decades-long obsession with tariffs as a solution to what he perceives as foreign trade barriers. 

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Posted by Byrd Pinkerton

This story was originally published in The Highlight, Vox’s member-exclusive magazine. To get early access to member-exclusive stories every month, join the Vox Membership program today.

In just a few hours, the world I’m walking into will disappear beneath the waves. 

I’m at Pillar Point Harbor, a 40-minute drive from San Francisco, near low tide. And because this is one of the lowest tides this August, the water has drawn back like a curtain to expose an ecosystem that’s normally hidden away — a place called the rocky intertidal, or, because the receding water leaves little pools behind in the rocks, “the tidepools.”

Dawn has just broken, pods of pelicans fly overhead, and sea lions bark from the nearby harbor. But I’m more focused on following my guide, a zoologist named Rebecca Johnson, as she picks her way out into these seaweed-covered rocks, pointing out species as she goes. These smooth green strands are surfgrass. Those fat bladders of air that look kind of like puffed-up gloves are called “seasack.” This dark brown frond Johnson is draping over her shoulders is the aptly named “feather boa kelp.” 

“ They’re like wildflowers,” Johnson says, “But it’s seaweed.”

Rebecca Johnson wears a feather boa kelp like a feather boa.

As we make our way deeper, she points out odd creatures that only the ocean could dream up. A boring clam (which is far from boring, but does bore into rock) puffs itself up like a fierce fleshy ball before squirting a jet of water directly into the air to fend off our threatening vibes. A pale white brittle star, like a flexible daddy longlegs, dances for us across some algae. And rows of fat green anemones wear bits of shells like tiny hats. 

“ The theory is that…they’re protecting themselves from the sun, like a sunscreen,” Johnson tells me.

We crouch together at the edge of a deep pool and see first one, then two — then three, four, five, six! — species of nudibranchs, the sea slugs that Johnson specializes in. One is hot pink and spiky. Another is an aggressive shade of orange. There’s a pale lemon one, a ghostly white one. Johnson even finds one covered in orange polka dots, like a marine clown. Some of these species, she tells me, bubbling with enthusiasm, eat anemones and steal their stinging cells, repurposing them as their own defenses.

An orange polka-dotted sea slug.

This kind of diversity is wild to witness, but it isn’t unusual for these tidepools. 

“It’s one of the places in the world that you can see species of invertebrates all really, really concentrated,” Johnson told me.

We wander farther out, exploring this alien landscape together, until the tide begins to come back in and cover it over, bit by bit, hiding this weird world away again in a slow disappearing act.

“ It’s extra magical that you can only see it at certain times,” Johnson told me before we came out here. “You get this little peek, this little window. And that’s one of the things I love the most about it.”

Johnson has been coming to this exact spot off Pillar Point for almost three decades now, and in her role as director for the Center for Biodiversity and Community Science for the California Academy of Sciences, she spends time with volunteers monitoring tidepools up and down the California coasts. But she’s still enchanted with them. 

I’m not surprised. I fell in love with tidepools myself 20 years ago, when I first got to explore them as a kid at a summer camp in Mendocino. The odd, colorful creatures in them made me feel like magic was a little bit real, that science could feel like fantasy. It’s part of the reason I’m a science reporter today. 

But Johnson is worried about the future of these tidepools she loves so much. She’s worried that, like so many ecosystems around the world, they may be heading toward a much more dramatic, much more permanent disappearing act. 

So she, along with many, many collaborators all across the state of California and beyond, is doing what many scientists are trying to do for the ecosystems they study: to figure out — first, what’s actually happening to them, and second, what, if anything, we can do to save them. 

The sun rises on a California tidepool

How did we get here? 

For Rebecca Johnson, the troubles really began around the arrival of “The Blob”: a marine heatwave. By 2014, it had warmed waters significantly along the West Coast of the United States. Johnson was hearing concerning things from participants in the programs she organized through Cal Academy to get people to go into the tidepools and make observations.

“They started seeing an increase in this really beautiful pink nudibranch called the Hopkins Rose nudibranch,” she says. 

Historically, the Hopkins Rose nudibranch has lived in Southern California — and ventured up to Johnson’s more northern tidepools mostly during El Niño years. But as the temperatures shifted for the Blob, the spiky pink balls were showing up in huge numbers.

It became the most common thing,” Johnson remembers. 

She was also hearing disturbing reports about another animal — the sea star, known more colloquially as the starfish.

As early as 2013, before The Blob really hit, divers and researchers had started noticing that sea stars were, quite literally, wasting away. 

“They were seeing white lesions on starfishes. And they were seeing the starfish kind of disintegrate in front of them,” she says. “[They would] see it one day with these lesions. They’d come back the next day and it was like almost dissolved and then almost gone.” 

Sea star wasting also isn’t unheard of, but in this instance, the wasting hit species after species of sea stars — at least 20 species in all. Also, as an evolutionary ecologist who studied this outbreak, Lauren Schiebelhut, told me, wasting normally happens on a more local scale — isolated to a single bay, for example.

“For it to spread across the entire West Coast here, that was something we had not seen before,” Schiebelhut says. 

Scientists have been trying to work out what caused this massive shift for over a decade. Some theorized that it was a virus, and people have investigated the possibility of a bacterial issue. One researcher told me that her team is close to publishing a paper that should provide some more answers about an infectious agent here. But whatever the exact cause — and even though the wasting started before The Blob set in — scientists studying one species of sea star found that the biggest declines coincided with the warmer temperatures. Huge numbers of sea stars wasted away — with some locations losing over 90 percent of their stars

The Blob “certainly seemed to exacerbate it,” Schiebelhut says.

At one point, Johnson went down to her favorite tidepooling spot, Pillar Point, with a colleague, just to “see what they could see,” and they saw almost no sea stars. 

“It was just like the most bizarre feeling,” she says. “I was still at this place that was spectacularly beautiful, covered with algae. All these other invertebrates are there. But there’s just something kind of off about it.”

She says it was like going into your room, only to realize that someone has moved all your stuff very slightly. 

“And you’re like, ‘What’s wrong with this room?’ It had that disconcerting, unsettling feeling.”

This place Johnson knew so well — had been documenting and sharing with people for decades — suddenly felt unfamiliar. And at that moment, she felt a deep, deep uncertainty about its future. 

“Like, there might not be starfish, like ever,” she remembers thinking, “What does that mean?”

What it would mean to lose so many sea stars

The reason that Johnson was so worried about sea stars was not just that the tidepools at Pillar Point looked different. She was worried about the role sea stars play in the tidepools ecosystem. To us, they might seem like pretty creatures that come in a fun shape, but to many of the ocean animals they interact with, they are voracious predators that help keep their ecosystems in balance — chowing down on everything from mussels and barnacles to snails.  

To understand why this is so important, let’s journey a little beyond the tidepools, a little farther offshore, into the California kelp forests. These are underwater forests of algae that are home to a huge diversity of animals, from fish and octopi to abalone. Kelp forests also provide a buffer for the coast against erosion, and they absorb and store large amounts of carbon dioxide, which benefits all of us as we try to stave off climate change. So they’re amazing ecosystems.

But, like any forest, California’s coastal kelp forest has grazers — basically the marine equivalent of deer. In this case, these are animals like the purple sea urchin, a spiky purple pincushion that chows down enthusiastically on kelp. 

Normally, Peter Roopnarine, a paleontologist at the California Academy of Sciences who has studied kelp forests tells me, sea urchins are content to eat the bits of detritus that the kelp shed naturally. But if there isn’t enough kelp detritus to go around, urchins can start feeding on the living kelp itself. 

“ That will happen if, for example, there are not enough predators around to keep their population in control, to keep them hiding,” Roopnarine says. “ Pretty soon they kill the kelp, and what you’re left with is what we call an urchin barren, which are these stretches of seafloor that are covered with urchins. And nothing else.” 

Sea otters are one of the predators — one of the wolves, to continue the metaphor, to our urchin deer — keeping urchins in check along some parts of the coast. Sea otters were hunted aggressively by European settlers, and have not returned along the northern part of the coast, but have made a comeback in central California.  

Another important wolf for these kelp forests, though, is a sea star known as pycnopodia helianthoides, or the “sunflower sea star.” Sunflower sea stars are beautiful, often purple or pink, and kind of squishy. But they are also, at least as sea stars go, big. They can have 20 arms, and grow to the size of a dinner plate or larger. (As a kid, when we found them in the tidepools, we used to have to hold them in two hands.) And researchers have increasingly found that they, too, did a lot of work to keep urchins in check.  

This is why it was such a big deal when the sea star wasting syndrome hit and wiped out so many sea stars, sunflower sea stars very much included. 

After the sickness, a lot of sea star species did start to come back. You can find sea stars like ochre stars, leather stars, and bat stars in California tidepools, for example. But while sunflower sea stars can still be found in the wild further north, in places like Washington state, they have not bounced back along the coast of California. And that, scientists suggest, may have contributed to the issues they’re now seeing in kelp forests. 

Satellite surveys from a few years ago showed that the kelp forests off of Northern California have shrunk by 95 percent. Once again, this is probably due to a combination of factors. High water temperatures may have weakened the kelp, for example. But another factor was the explosion of urchin populations. 

“This lack of the sunflower star in the kelp forest, especially in Northern California,” Johnson says, “led to the increase of urchins. And the urchins then ate all the kelp.”

What does this mean for the future of these tidepools? 

The tidepools haven’t been hit as hard as the kelp forests. Clearly, as our visit in August showed, a place like Pillar Point has not turned into the equivalent of an urchin barren and is instead still home to a diversity of creatures.  

Still, Johnson says, they have been affected. She has, anecdotally, noticed grazing species like abalone that normally spend more of their time in the kelp forests moving over to tidepools, probably in search of kelp to eat. And as temperatures continue warming over time, tidepool ecosystems are changing in other ways. A recent paper showed that a species of nudibranch range has moved northward. Another study showed that a whole bunch of different marine species, including nudibranchs, but also species of snail, lobster, and crab were spotted farther north than their usual range during a heat wave. Some of these species are predators that might shake up the dynamics and the ecosystems they’re coming into. 

“We don’t actually know what happens when they move north,” Johnson says. “ We don’t really know the impact.” 

And then, as Schiebelhut, the geneticist who studies sea stars, told me, there are other stressors like pollution and runoff from wildfires. In January, more than 57,000 acres burned from a series of wildfires in Greater Los Angeles — a disaster whose scope of damage on intertidal ecosystems is not yet clear, researchers told me.

 “The disturbances are becoming more frequent, more intense,” Schiebelhut says. “It is a challenge to the system.” 

Johnson admits that it’s hard to know exactly how to interpret all these changes and stressors and use them to predict the future of the tidepools. After all, the California coastal ecosystems have survived the loss of important species before, and survived big natural disasters too. 

So I turned to Roopnarine, the paleontologist. He studies how ancient ecosystems weathered — or didn’t weather — things like climate change, and what we might learn from them to apply to ecosystems facing challenges today. I hoped he would have a sense of how the current moment fits into the bigger patterns of history. 

“If you look in the fossil record,” he told me, “one of the things that’s really remarkable is that ecosystems can last a very long time. Millions of years. Species will come and go in those ecosystems, but what they do, who they do it to, and so on? That doesn’t change.”

Ecosystems are a little like, say, a baseball team. You’ll always need certain players in certain roles — pitchers and catchers and shortstops and outfielders. Different players can retire and be replaced by other players — if one predator disappears, another predator might be able to take over some of the role that it plays, for example. 

But Roopnarine’s research into the fossil record also shows that no ecosystem baseball team is endlessly flexible.

“They do eventually come to an end,” he says. Usually, that’s when really extreme changes occur. And when he looks at the moments in the past when the climate changed dramatically, and he looks at forecasts for our future, he’s very worried. 

“We have to be realistic that if we do nothing, the future is extremely grim,” he tells me, “There is no sugarcoating it.”

What can we do? 

When it comes to safeguarding the future health of California’s coastal ecosystems, there are lots of people doing lots of things.

Johnson is working with colleagues on a system that uses the community science app iNaturalist to better monitor the health of coastal tidepools. 

Anyone who goes to the tide pools can upload photos of all the species that they see. Those photos, geotagged with locations and timestamps, will hopefully help researchers figure out how populations are changing, to model the future of this ecosystem. They could also potentially serve as a warning system if there are big die-offs again, so scientists can try and intervene earlier. 

Schiebelhut has studied the genomes of sea stars that did recover, to see what can be learned about what made them so resilient to wasting. 

The California state government has partnered with nonprofits and commercial fishermen to clear urchins and restore kelp. 

And then there’s the consortium of institutions up and down the coast, all working on an initiative to try to breed sunflower sea stars in captivity so that they might, eventually, be released back into the wild and resume their role as key predators.

“ There is no one person that can do all the things,” says Ashley Kidd, a project manager at the Sunflower Star Lab, one of the many groups working together to bring sunflower sea stars back. What gives her hope is that so many different people, from so many institutions, are working together toward solutions. 

“ You can’t have all the knowledge of disease ecology, behavioral ecology, aquaculture by yourself,” Kidd says. “It is a much bigger, wonderful group of people that you get to work with and then be connected with. … You’re not alone.”

When I first heard that these tidepools might be in trouble, I felt an overwhelming sense of loss. 

This ecosystem made me believe that the real world had its own magic — because sure, fairies might not be real, but opalescent nudibranchs come pretty close. It hurts to think that that magic might dim, or even disappear. But walking through these pools with Johnson and watching her walk over to a mother and her daughter to show them nudibranchs, eagerly sharing this world with strangers, I felt delight, and a wonderful sense of present-ness. I felt part of that community. A sense that, whatever the future of these tidepools might look like, they were here, now, and as magical as ever. 

“In the midst of climate change and a future that is going to be hotter and harder and more difficult for people, you have to have joy,” Johnson says. “I struggle with it. I feel like marine systems especially are pretty complicated to think about restoring. What do you actually do out here? How do you protect things?…But you can’t stop doing it, because then you’ve kind of lost everything.”

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Posted by Christian Paz

Michelle Obama sitting on an armchair holding a mic and speaking during SXSW.
Former first lady Michelle Obama speaks during a panel on March 13, 2025, at SXSW in Austin, Texas. | Gilbert Flores/Penske Media via Getty Images

This story was originally published in The Highlight, Vox’s member-exclusive magazine. To get early access to member-exclusive stories every month, join the Vox Membership program today.

When Michelle Obama announced in March that she and her brother were starting a podcast, it dug up a familiar feeling for Democrats: yearning.

If only the uber-popular former first lady would just return to politics. She could just run for president, if she wanted.

It’s a recurring wish, for an Obama to save the Democratic Party. And like every time that chatter comes up, the dreamers were quickly let down. The podcast has avoided the political, and Obama herself has remained mostly out of the public eye, skipping high-profile public events and not commenting on news. She’s not alone. The party’s leaders of the past have also mostly remained silent as Donald Trump and Elon Musk challenge the law, remake the federal government, and implement the Trump 2.0 agenda.

This pining for Obama’s return isn’t new, but particularly during the second Trump term, it reflects something special about this moment: The Democratic Party still doesn’t have a clear leader, doesn’t have a clear direction of where to go, and keeps looking to the past for leadership.

Some of that identity crisis is being fought out in public. Various governors are vying for the attention of voters pissed off at Trump and Republicans. They’re on podcasts and TV shows, at town halls and listening sessions. In Congress, they’re slowly figuring out how their constituents want them to resist Trump. And most notably, Sen. Bernie Sanders is wrapping up a multistate run of rallies against “oligarchy,” essentially anointing US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York his movement’s successor in front of huge crowds.

Still, none of these individuals seem to be uniting the party in the way the most loyal Democrats might wish for.

But that might be okay. If history can show us anything about what Democrats do now, it’s that opposition parties need this time without a clear leader to debate their identities, rebuild grassroots energy, and prepare for midterm elections. The Democrats’ savior isn’t coming any time soon. But that may be a feature, not a bug, of losing elections.

Democrats keep looking to the past for saviors

The hope for a great savior — either a veteran voice who can right the ship or an outsider who can rock it — might actually be an impediment as the Democrats figure themselves out. While a new guard of politicians and voices are still getting their footing or pushing for more influence, the “hero” they’re looking for won’t come around for a while — meaning the party should be using this time to rebuild and have these debates.

“The very fact that Democrats are looking for a savior, seeking the man or woman on the white or black horse, is a sign that they’re not really doing what good political parties do, which is work at the grassroots, recruit people to run and make the case about why what Trump and Musk are doing is horrible,” Michael Kazin, the Georgetown University political historian who’s written an extensive history of the Democratic Party, told me.

Asking for a Biden or Harris return is probably not the answer.

There are some trying to make this case. Some of the loudest remaining voices on the Democratic side remain members of the old guard — Sanders, for example, or Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who led many protests against Trump and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency’s attempts to downsize the federal government in the first few weeks of the Trump presidency. Neither are positioning themselves as the next leaders of the party, but Sanders, at least, seems to be setting the stage for a younger voice. He remains the most popular national figure, but the younger voices who could succeed him or chart out a new chapter for the party are not nearly as popular.

Those younger voices — like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, or Ocasio-Cortez — are polarizing or still relatively unknown. They all represent different paths forward for the party. And they’re all trying out different approaches to tap into the anger that the average Democratic voter is feeling.  

And these divisions may actually end up being helpful: They’re setting the ground for a lively Democratic presidential primary contest in two to three years, they’re offering voters an idea of what the party could still become, and all represent a new vision for the party — even if the noise right now is about the party’s disunity. They also serve a midterm purpose as well: There not being a unified Democratic leader or agenda allows individual candidates to run their own, localized races without being pegged to one figure, as they tend to be during presidential election years, like when Biden was running. So embracing that chaos and disunity might actually be a good thing.

“It’s a mistake to think you just have your preexisting set of people who’ve done it before, that one of them must be a savior. And frankly, right now, as opposed to in four years, the savior isn’t going to come from one single person. I’m not convinced that’s really how it works,” Julian Zelizer, a political history professor at Princeton University, told me. “The savior might be the congressional caucuses in the House and Senate acting effectively. The saviors might be independent groups, ACLU-type groups challenging [Trump] in court. But I think it’s more an organizational moment, and in a few years, you turn to the single individual. But I don’t think there’s a superhero who’s gonna fly in right now and just totally stop this. And thinking that way is probably not constructive for Democrats.”

Of course, Democrats will still be pining for a hero, a new JFK or Obama to take on the mantle of the new Democratic Party. But there’s no easy way out of the current moment of crisis. The Obamas certainly won’t be the ones to resolve it. And wanting the figures of the past to return might actually be counterproductive.

This clamor has apparently made its way to the Bidens, who reportedly have offered to fundraise, campaign, and boost Democratic candidates this year and next. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has remained quiet, while her more popular former running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has instead embarked on an “I told you so” tour as he tests the waters for a third term as governor.

But asking for a Biden or Harris return is probably not the answer. 

“What good is it going to do? Is it going to convince anybody [for a former president or vice president to speak up]?” Kazin said. “It’s pretty common after the party who loses the election and obviously has no clear leader, for there to be a period where it’s not clear who the leaders are going to be. That happened in some ways, after 2004 as well. Going back in history, it happened in the 1920s a lot with Democrats not winning elections, it happened after losses in 1980 and 1984 and 1988 as well. So it takes a while for that to shake out. That’s not surprising.”

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Posted by Benji Jones

A wind turbine and a cloudy sky.
A wind turbine on a farm in northern Iowa. | Annick Sjobakken for Vox

If you drive across Iowa, you’ll probably notice two things aside from the many farms: Trump signs and wind turbines.

Iowa is Trump country. While the state was once considered politically purple, it decisively supported President Donald Trump in 2016, in 2020, and in 2024, when Trump won in 94 of Iowa’s 99 counties. Iowa’s governor and two senators are also Republicans, and, after some early friction, have fallen in line with Trump. 

Iowa is also a wind energy powerhouse. A remarkable 59 percent of the state’s energy in 2023 came from wind turbines, a larger share than any other state in the country. Texas is the only state that produces more wind energy than Iowa, though wind power makes up a much smaller portion of the Lone Star State’s energy mix. Wind turbines are now so common in Iowa that they appear on the state’s regular license plates. 

At face value, wind energy and Trump don’t mix. Many of his supporters downplay or disregard climate science showing that fossil fuels are warming the planet far faster than it would naturally — a key fact underlying the value of wind energy and other power sources that don’t have significant carbon emissions. In some cases, Trump supporters, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., also help elevate unproven claims that offshore wind turbines are killing whales.

Trump Vance sign in an empty field.

Trump himself, meanwhile, is the most anti-wind-energy president in history. He’s been bad-mouthing wind power for over a decade, often relying on similarly spurious claims. “We’re not going to do the wind thing,” Trump said in a speech on Inauguration Day. “Big, ugly wind mills. They ruin your neighborhood.” And Trump has already made policy moves intended to slow growth in the sector — causing some developers to halt or totally abandon projects.

On one hand, Iowa is a test case for the staying power of renewable energy. Wind farms have expanded in the state not because of climate concerns but because of economics. Wind energy is cheap in Iowa.

But Iowa also highlights an important disconnect that exists across the country — between the anti-climate, “drill, baby, drill” rhetoric that helped get Trump elected and the reality facing much of his base living in states that benefit from renewable energy. The economics of wind energy are incredibly strong, experts told me, so the industry won’t just disappear. But Trump’s energy policies, if successful, could have harmful consequences for Republican strongholds like Iowa. A question now is if conservatives who rely on wind energy push back, will Trump soften his anti-wind stance?  

How wind took over Iowa, a Republican stronghold

If you want to learn about wind energy in Iowa, the person to talk to is Tom Wind. (Yes, his name is literally Tom Wind, and yes, people point it out a lot to him.) He’s a crop farmer and electrical engineer in Iowa who’s been working in the sector — first at a utility, then as a consultant, and now as a wind-farm manager — for decades.

There are several reasons for Iowa’s ascendency to wind dominance, Wind told me. The simplest reason is that Iowa is windy. And while some Great Plains states like Nebraska and Kansas are technically windier, Iowa is closer to big population centers, like Chicago, that need lots of power.

Wind turbines in Iowa.

Iowa was also quick to adopt policies that benefited wind and other renewables. In fact, Iowa was the first state in the country to establish what’s called a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), in 1983. It required the state’s investor-owned utilities to contract out or own at least 105 megawatts of renewable energy, which is enough to power tens of thousands of homes. Iowa reached that goal by 1999, Wind said. When the RPS was enacted, the state legislature was run by Democrats, though it still wasn’t that controversial: Iowa lawmakers, including Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, saw an opportunity to make Iowa more energy independent in the wake of the 1970s energy crisis (an actual crisis, by the way, not the manufactured energy emergency Trump has conjured). The state has also never had a large fossil-fuel industry to lobby against pro-renewable legislation, Wind said.

Later, state and especially federal tax incentives for renewable energy further propelled wind to dominance in Iowa. In the ’90s, Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, a Republican, helped establish a federal tax credit for building wind farms. That ultimately helped earn Grassley the title of “father” of Iowa wind energy.

MidAmerican Energy Company, the largest electric utility in Iowa and a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, was especially hungry for tax credits, Wind said, and has since built out an enormous amount of wind energy. (In reporting this story, Vox reached out to several Republican politicians and energy authorities in the state. Branstad, Grassley’s office, MidAmerican, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy all declined interview requests. Sen. Joni Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds did not respond to interview requests.)

The state’s many farmers — a core section of Iowa’s economy that maintains a lot of political power — have also helped the wind industry take off. Farmers across Iowa have put turbines on their land as a way to earn more income. While crop prices and yields are volatile and at the whims of natural disasters, wind turbines offer a relatively stable source of revenue, on the scale of thousands of dollars per year, per turbine.

A man wearing a bright turquoise shirt, which is blowing in the wind. A wind turbine is seen in the distance across a wheat-colored field.

“It’s a real blessing for us,” said Dave Johnson, a livestock farmer in northern Iowa who leases his land to a utility that installed four turbines on his property. He earns about $30,000 a year from the four turbines combined, he told Vox. Johnson’s son also has turbines on his farm. 

Johnson, a Republican who says he voted for Trump, had the turbines installed primarily because he wanted his farm — where he raises cattle and hogs — to generate more value. “I never had a 401(k),” he said. “I farmed and stuck everything back into the farm. This is the 401(k) that I never had.” 

Fred Koschmeder, a corn and soybean farmer near Johnson’s farm, also has turbines on his land. “I don’t even look at it as a political thing,” Koschmeder, who also says he voted for Trump, said of wind energy. “It is economic development. If you’ve got a chance to participate in something that brings value, I think you’re kind of foolish not to do it. … It adds a lot of value to your farm and extra income, too.”

Farming in Iowa has become more economically challenging in recent years, as the price of some crops like soybeans have dipped, and farm costs, such as tractor repairs, have spiked due to inflation. Climate change is also raising the risk of drought and flooding, according to government and academic researchers. Wind energy “is allowing farmers to stay on the farm,” Johnson said. “That helps rural America.”

But even if you’re not a farmer, you likely benefit from wind turbines if you live in Iowa, said Steve Guyer, senior energy policy counsel at Iowa Environmental Council, a nonprofit green group. The state has stable energy bills that tend to be well below the national average in cost. Onshore wind is the cheapest source of energy with or without tax credits, as of 2024, according to the financial firm Lazard.

“All customers benefit from it,” said Guyer, who formerly worked for utilities in Iowa. “Although other costs may rise over time, the cost of the wind actually remains stable or lowers. When we factor that into the overall utility bill, it at least stabilizes the bill.”

The wind industry also employs roughly 4,000 people across the state and draws billions of dollars in capital investments. Plus, it’s the No. 1 taxpayer in a third of Iowa counties, according to Mak Heddens, who runs a group called Power Up Iowa, a coalition of clean energy companies in Iowa.

While wind energy projects have faced fierce opposition in several counties — anti-wind advocates often rely on misinformation to argue that turbines harm wildlife and threaten human health — the industry is popular on the whole. This likely has little to do with politics or concerns about climate change. People across the political spectrum like wind energy because it’s cheap, local, and generates money for the state’s economy. These are things Republicans really care about, said James McCalley, an electrical engineer and wind energy expert at Iowa State University.

“We’re a red state, and we’ve embraced it, and I’m proud of that,” said Brent Siegrist, a Republican state representative in the western Iowa’s Pottawattamie County, where a large wind farm produces enough electricity to power up to 122,000 homes. “Maybe it’s the commonsense approach of Iowans: We need energy, and if we can do it renewably — and it’s not costing us a fortune — why wouldn’t we do it?”

Are Iowa Republicans worried?

There’s no doubt that wind energy is a massive part of Iowa’s economy — powering the bulk of homes and businesses in the state — and a boon to residents. Yet people who support Trump often don’t see his anti-wind position as much of a threat or expect it to shift. 

Johnson, the livestock farmer, says he doesn’t pay close attention to Trump’s comments on wind energy. “I know he just shoots his mouth off,” Johnson said. When asked about real policies Trump has put in place, including an executive order that pauses new approvals for wind projects, Johnson said he’s not worried because wind energy has a lot of support, even among Republicans. 

Siegrist, meanwhile, downplayed how much Iowa depends on wind energy, mentioning that the state still uses coal. And while Siegrist doesn’t think the federal government should be controlling what happens to wind development within states, he’s not worried about Trump’s anti-wind statements. “I’ve got enough things to do in Iowa to worry about Washington, DC,” he told me. 

a torn American flag in front of a bright blue sky with clouds

Paul Roeder, a Republican who owns a handful of wind turbines in Iowa, is similarly untroubled by the administration’s position. “I’m not so much worried about politics as I am about some of the other external factors that drive the price of energy,” Roeder told me. “The president doesn’t drive the price of energy.” 

Roeder says he voted for Trump but not because of the president’s stance on renewable energy. This raises a key point: Many Republicans support renewable energy, and they may even worry about carbon emissions, but energy simply isn’t as salient for them as other issues, such as immigration. That helps explain how someone like Grassley — the father of Iowa wind energy, remember — is a Trump ally, even though he’s previously called Trump’s comments about wind energy “idiotic.” 

A truck parked in a field with a Trump sign in its bed

It’s also worth pointing out that, more generally, people don’t often think about where their energy comes, as long as their lights turn on and their bills aren’t surging. I grew up in Iowa and have visited at least once a year since. But it wasn’t until recently — through my environmental reporting — that I realized how important wind energy is to the state. So it’s not shocking that Iowan’s don’t connect their energy to Trump. “They don’t necessarily make the connection to what the president is saying,” said Bob Keefe, executive director of E2, an association of business leaders, many of whom work in the clean energy industry.

But there is real cause for concern. 

The strong economics of wind energy — what allowed turbines to proliferate in a conservative state — persist today, and so it’s reasonable to expect that the sector will still grow. Yet policies from the Trump administration could seriously dent the industry across the country, including in Iowa. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order that aimed to curtail growth of the wind-energy industry. Among other things, it directed agencies to pause new and renewed federal approvals and leases for both onshore and offshore wind projects. 

Since Trump’s executive order from January 20, the administration has put in place or threatened additional tariffs on countries, such as China, that would substantially raise the cost of onshore turbines, some of which are manufactured in Iowa. Even turbines that are manufactured locally are typically built with at least some foreign parts.

“There is a certain level of nervousness in the market,” Manav Sharma, North America division CEO for Nordex Group, a wind turbine manufacturer that has a production facility in Iowa, told KCRG.

In a statement, Alliant Energy, the third-largest utility owner and operator of regulated wind energy in the US, according to the company, said it will “continue to monitor the Trump Administration executive orders on national energy policy.” TPI Composites, a global company that manufactures wind turbine blades in Iowa, declined an interview request. 

Some wind advocates and lawmakers — including some conservatives — are also worried that the Republican-controlled Congress may stamp out tax incentives for clean energy that are part of former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Those incentives have largely benefitted Republican districts but are at risk of getting cut as Trump has vowed to repeal the IRA. “I think the subsidies are the biggest issue,” Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University who specializes in the Midwest, told Vox. “If they are reduced, will wind energy survive?” 

Even if tax credits remain, the Trump administration may still weaken incentives, such as through efforts to shrink the IRS. “What could also happen is they cut the IRS workforce,” Wind said, adding that applications to get tax credits have to go through the agency. “If you start losing employees, things start slowing down. It just gets harder to do business with the IRS.”

These concerns are especially pressing today as Iowa becomes a hot spot for energy-intensive data centers in step with the AI boom. It will need more energy quickly. Google, Meta, and Microsoft are all building out or operating data centers in the state, in part, because the state has affordable energy.

Policies from the administration that harm renewable energy stand to harm Iowa, said Keefe of E2. This is true whether or not you care about climate change. “You don’t do this kind of damage to an industry, you don’t spin off this kind of market uncertainty, and things will be okay,” Keefe said. “The only way they’re going to be okay is if businesses and consumers stand up and demand that their lawmakers not take an energy source away from them that happens to be the cheapest energy we can develop right now.”

“If I was one of those thousands of Iowans that work in the wind industry, or if I had family that worked in the industry, I would be calling my lawmaker today and saying, ‘Hey, recognize the risks that you are putting my community at — my family, these jobs, our economy,’” he said.

Correction, April 22, 5:30 pm ET: James McCalley’s political affiliation was misstated in a previous version of this post.

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Posted by Umair Irfan

A photo of an offshore wind turbine and rough waters
An offshore wind turbine generates electricity at the Block Island Wind Farm near Block Island, Rhode Island, in 2022. | John Moore/Getty Images

According to the American Clean Power Association, 93 percent of the new energy capacity added to the US power grid in 2024 — 49 gigawatts — came from low greenhouse gas emissions sources like wind, solar, and batteries. And the trends show no sign of stopping: the Energy Information Administration projects that just solar and battery power together will account for 81 percent of the new capacity added to the grid in 2025. 

It’s not just the US; about 80 percent of the global increase in electricity generation in 2024 came from zero emissions sources like renewables and nuclear, even in developing countries and places that don’t have strong climate goals in place. Last year, Pakistan purchased 22 gigawatts of solar panels, almost half of what the US installed

Countries, states, grid operators, and private companies aren’t exactly making these decisions out of a benevolent desire to save the Earth. They’re doing it because it’s often the fastest, most affordable route to more energy.

“These people were not climate fanatics or folks who are solving for climate change; they were solving for human needs in their homes,” said Jigar Shah, who led the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office under President Joe Biden — which by the end of 2024 had issued $69 billion in financing for clean energy projects. “Clean energy is the dominant way by which you actually add electricity to the grid today.”

But there are political, market, and technological forces that could slow this shift down drastically. We’re getting a picture of that in real time as President Donald Trump’s tariffs send the global economy on a roller coaster ride. The twists and turns are especially stomach-churning for clean energy. The supply chains for photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion cells stretch around the world. Tariffs will raise costs for the raw materials and finished components that go into new clean tech products, but the uncertainty — about which countries get what tariffs and whether they’ll stick — is making it hard to plan anything at all.

There are also some obstacles for clean energy that long predate Trump. New wind and solar projects still struggle to get local approval for projects, clear regulatory hurdles, and need better grid infrastructure to support them. Fossil fuel industries are also wising up to the competition from renewables and are investing and lobbying to stay in the game. 

At the same time, the urgency for switching to clean energy is mounting as the world reaches new record-high average temperatures. Unconstrained burning of coal, oil, and natural gas will keep heating up the planet unless countries switch to sources that emit far fewer greenhouse gases. The rest of the world is continuing to invest in clean tech and if the US upholds its trade barriers, it will find itself on the sidelines of a major growth sector as other countries corner the global market on wind, solar, batteries, and even nuclear. 

What will slow down the shift to clean energy

Tariffs

With tariffs going up in the US, deploying clean energy will get more expensive, and the overall hit to the economy means there will be less money going around to install it. Even if Trump reaches a detente with other countries, he remains adamant about keeping stiff import taxes on Chinese goods. Since China is such a large supplier of products like photovoltaic panels to generate electricity and batteries to store energy, US clean energy developers will likely have to turn to more expensive suppliers.   

“The biggest risk here is not that clean energy becomes less dominant,” Shah said. “I think the bigger risk is that clean energy becomes less affordable. We’ll still continue to build clean energy because people don’t want rolling blackouts, but I think that they’ll just have to pay a higher price for it.”

At the same time, US manufacturers of electric cars, solar panels, and batteries will have a harder time exporting their products as other countries counter with their own tariffs on US goods. According to the latest US Energy and Employment Jobs Report from the Energy Department, there were a total of 8.35 million workers in the whole energy sector in 2023. Clean energy employment is growing twice as fast as the rest of the industry. A slowdown in clean energy could affect millions of jobs

Economic uncertainty

Clean power sources are increasingly competitive with fossil fuels. In some circumstances, they’re the superior option even without subsidies. Still, if the goal is to limit climate change, then it makes sense to continue to keep a thumb on the scale. That doesn’t necessarily mean subsidies and tax credits. It could involve funding more research and development, reducing some of the regulatory barriers, or setting benchmarks for deployment at national, state, and local levels.

But the federal government under Trump is looking to cut back on all forms of support for clean energy, and in cases like offshore wind, actively hamper it. Meanwhile, the turmoil from tariffs is raising the odds of the US and global economies tipping into a recession. A recession would make it more difficult to finance new installations and could weaken the value of key incentives like tax credits

The administration can’t seem to make up its mind on what kinds of barriers it will erect, leaving investors to wait and see. No business wants to spend billions of dollars on projects that will take decades to pay off if they have no idea what their operating costs will be. 

Regulations

In the US, building anything on a large scale is a dicey proposition these days, but that’s particularly true for energy projects. Simply getting approval to connect a power plant to the grid — regardless of the energy source —is a years-long process that’s still getting longer. There are 2,600 gigawatts of generation waiting in line, double the current size of the entire fleet of US power generators. 

Some ostensible environmental regulations are also holding back new clean energy deployment, and in some cases, the red tape is being cynically weaponized against projects like offshore wind farms. Members of both parties have recognized that arcane permitting rules in the US are holding back energy development, particularly renewables, since so many wind and solar projects are in the pipeline. But reform efforts to date have failed. President Trump has said he wants to speed up permitting — but specifically for fossil fuels.   

The Trump administration also wants to roll back environmental regulations like clean air standards and fuel economy benchmarks, eliminating part of the pressure to switch to things like electric vehicles. At local levels, utilities in some parts of the country are trying to limit rooftop solar that challenges their monopolies and several states are adding a surcharge to register electric cars to make up for lost gas tax revenues. 

An aging power grid

About 70 percent of US power transmission lines in the US are more than 25 years old. Much of the hardware on the grid — transformers, busbars, and switchgear — dates back to the 1960s and is nearing the end of its life. Just keeping the lights on with the system we have will require extensive, expensive refurbishment. 

Transmission lines in front of a bright orange sunset. Smoke plumes in the background.

And the system was designed for large, central power plants to send electrons in one direction to homes, factories, and offices. It was not built to handle variable wind and solar power, nor electricity flowing from rooftops back onto the grid. To bring even more renewables online, it will be necessary to build more generators where sunlight and wind are most abundant, often far from the places that need their electricity. It will take many miles of new transmission lines to connect hungry cities to cheap energy.  

Yet at a time when the US should be speeding up its transmission buildout, it’s actually slowing down. The US has more than 160,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines. The country built an average of 2,000 miles of high-voltage transmission per year between 2012 and 2016. From 2017 to 2021, it fell to 700 miles per year. In 2023, it was just 55 miles. The permitting process is taking longer, and constructing the lines is getting more expensive, creating a choke point for clean energy.

Competition from dirty energy

While clean energy is taking off, the vast majority of the world’s energy — to power transportation, generate electricity, and make fertilizer — still comes from fossil fuels. About 81 percent of the world’s energy last year came from coal, oil, and natural gas, and demand was at a record high. It shows that while clean energy is gaining ground, most governments aren’t too picky about where their power comes from.

Fossil fuel industry stalwarts aren’t sitting idle either. While many companies say that there’s room at the table for things like renewables and electric cars, they’re betting that people will continue to use their products for decades. Major oil and gas companies are still finding new places to drill while developing ways to extract these resources at lower costs while creating new customers by financing infrastructure like gas pipelines and power plants in developing countries. 

The industry is also lobbying against climate polities and efforts to hold them accountable for their damage to the environment. So even if low emissions energy technologies continue to advance, the main contributors to climate change could gain ground as well, slowing the shift to a net-zero economy. 

The good news

Despite the headwinds, the tools for building a net-zero economy are still getting better. And the United States has advantages to play. 

Batteries are a good example. Ten new battery factories are scheduled to start up this year. “The next big breakthroughs in anodes and cathodes in lithium batteries are all proprietary technologies of the United States, so those are unlikely to be shared with China or other places,” Shah said. “I think the batteries that we produce here in the early 2030s will be by far the most efficient, most cost-effective batteries that you can make.”

Though the federal government under Trump is backing away from renewables in favor of coal, oil, and natural gas, many states, cities, and private companies remain committed to shifting to cleaner energy. Businesses looking to hedge against fuel price volatility or to get around local power constraints are already investing in clean energy to run their operations. Last year, data centers alone accounted for half of clean energy procurement in the US. “The ecosystem of companies is really unstoppable today,” Shah said.

Individuals are also driving the transition to a cleaner economy. Upgrading to a television that uses much less electricity or a dishwasher that only needs a fraction of the water can save money. A well-insulated home is more comfortable and cheaper to heat and cool. For many commuters, charging up their car at home is far more convenient than filling up at a gas station.

As more people unlock the side benefits of clean tech, consumer-level demand for appliances, cars, and power plants that do more with less will pick up, speeding up the turn away from fossil fuels. 

To limit climate change this century, the pace of the transition to clean energy will need to speed up, and the current political and economic moment certainly makes that harder. But the shift is already underway, and while it can be slowed, it’s going to be very hard to stop.

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Posted by Adam Clark Estes

The path to weening your life off fossil fuels is more accessible than you think.

Growing up in rural Tennessee, power outages were frequent and sometimes fun. With no TV or lights, we played boardgames by candlelight or played outside if the storm stopped. But because my family also ran a restaurant out of our house, sometimes the food in the fridges spoiled, leading to thousands of dollars worth of lost groceries. It never occurred to me so many years ago that a big battery could one day solve this problem. 

As extreme weather worsens due to climate change, leading millions more to experience debilitating blackouts, the home battery industry is booming. Home batteries are not like the AAA batteries that go in your TV remote control. They’re big, high-capacity lithium-ion workhorses designed to power multiple devices and appliances in the event of a power outage. The amount of energy that can be stored in residential batteries, which is measured in gigawatt hours (GWh), grew by a record 54 percent from 2023 to 2024, according to a new report on energy storage in the United States. It’s now enough to power up to 1 million homes. Growth is even bigger in Europe

Many home batteries are being used to store energy from solar panels, but there’s a burgeoning market for backup batteries that can keep essential appliances, like refrigerators, running during a power outage. Some of these batteries are also smart enough to charge up when energy is cheap and then discharge when it’s expensive to save on utility bills. We’re also starting to see appliances with built-in batteries that make them more efficient and effective.

Solving the lost groceries problem is only the beginning. As more people add battery capacity to their homes, the power grid can become more resilient to spikes in energy usage and bring down costs for everyone. While the number of battery-powered houses still make up a minority of all the homes in the US, home batteries are becoming more affordable and accessible, giving the average American household the chance to take advantage of what an electrified future has to offer.

One of the more interesting home batteries I’ve come across is made by BioLite, a Brooklyn, New York-based company that got its start building camp stoves that can charge your phone. Backup by BioLite is a home battery specifically designed for the dead fridge problem, or any other dead appliances. The primary unit is a slim battery pack that can fit behind your refrigerator or sit on top of it. It plugs into a standard wall outlet and doesn’t require a contractor or any rewiring to install. Just plug your fridge and any other devices into the Backup’s power strip, and it’s ready to take over in the event of an outage. One $2,000 Backup battery gets you 15 to 30 hours of power, and if you daisy-chain several batteries together, you can get a few days worth of power. 

“This is not meant to be a niche product for the bleeding-edge solar battery storage expert,” Erica Rosen, BioLite’s vice president of marketing told me when I visited BioLite’s headquarters in March. “This is for folks who are, like, ‘I just threw out $400 worth of groceries. I can never do this again.’”

That example hit home for me. But it’s not actually what I think is most useful about the capabilities of home batteries. For people who pay attention to their power bills, Backup and other home batteries make it easier to take advantage of the time-of-use pricing some utilities offer, which makes electricity cheaper during low demand hours and higher when demand is high. Backup, for example, works with an app that lets you schedule the battery to kick in during high demand hours; BioLite is planning to eventually update the app so that this feature works automatically.

Plugging solar panels into these batteries gives you even more autonomy over your energy sources. Once you’re actually generating electricity, you can fill up your home batteries without drawing from the grid at all. If there’s an outage, the panels can keep those batteries charged when the sun’s out. If your utility offers it, you can also take advantage of something called net metering, which enables you to sell some of that stored energy back to the grid during peak demand. 

If battery-powered living sounds appealing to you, there are now even more creative ways to ease into it. A company called Copper started selling its battery-equipped stoves this year. The $6,000 Copper Charlie is an electric induction range with a rechargeable lithium-ion battery inside that’s programmed to charge when electricity is cheapest. The range plugs into a regular wall outlet — other inductions require a 240-volt outlet that not all homes have — and the battery supplies enough power for everyday cooking. It also kicks in during power outages so that you can keep cooking if the lights go out. The battery also gives the oven a boost, so that preheating is faster. 

There is, nevertheless, something unstoppable about the home battery revolution.

This is just the first of many battery-assisted appliances that Copper plans to make, according to Weldon Kennedy, the company’s co-founder and chief marketing officer. It’s not hard to imagine how the same basic backup features of the Charlie stove could work in a hot water heater or a washer-dryer. These kinds of appliances require a large amount of energy all at once and then sit idle for hours at a time. It makes great sense to charge them up when energy is cheap and then discharge that stored energy later.

“Because you don’t have these giant spikes in energy use across the electrical grid at, say, six o’clock when everyone turns on their electric stove,” Kennedy told me. “It just makes the whole system better.”

None of this comes cheap. The Copper Charlie range and Backup by BioLite are four-figure investments. There are other companies in the space, too, but they’re just as expensive. Impulse makes a battery-equipped stovetop that also costs $6,000, and Jackery sells a home backup battery for $3,500 and up. You can find even more expensive and extensive home battery systems from companies like Tesla, Anker, and Bluetti. There are some government subsidy programs available to offset those high costs, but on a federal level at least, it’s not clear if the Trump administration will keep them in place.

There is, nevertheless, something unstoppable about the home battery revolution. As certain solutions get cheaper and easier to use, like Biolite’s Backup, other options are becoming more appealing. Electric vehicles, after all, are basically big batteries on wheels, and a growing number of automakers are enabling bidirectional charging, which lets your vehicle power your home or send power back to the grid. GM is even working with some utility companies to help its car owners buy the equipment necessary to turn their EVs into home batteries.

Still, with the Trump administration downright hostile to clean energy, the US is lagging behind Europe and China in adopting more battery power. But the cost of battery production is falling fast, and we should expect to see batteries show up in more home appliances in the near future. After all, just one big battery could save you a fridge-full of groceries in the next power outage, and that outage is definitely coming. Climate change is making weather more extreme and unpredictable, which means it’s more essential than ever to be prepared for anything.

A version of this story was also published in the User Friendly newsletter. Sign up here so you don’t miss the next one!

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Posted by Scott Lemieux

Above right: “Hell exists on Earth? Yes.”

Larry David gets an immediate induction into the subtweeting Hall of Fame for absolutely demolishing Bill Maher [gift link]:

Two weeks later, I found myself on the front steps of the Old Chancellery and was led into an opulent living room, where a few of the Führer’s most vocal supporters had gathered: Himmler, Göring, Leni Riefenstahl and the Duke of Windsor, formerly King Edward VIII. We talked about some of the beautiful art on the walls that had been taken from the homes of Jews. But our conversation ended abruptly when we heard loud footsteps coming down the hallway. Everyone stiffened as Hitler entered the room.

He was wearing a tan suit with a swastika armband and gave me an enthusiastic greeting that caught me off guard. Frankly, it was a warmer greeting than I normally get from my parents, and it was accompanied by a slap on my back. I found the whole thing quite disarming. I joked that I was surprised to see him in a tan suit because if he wore that out, it would be perceived as un-Führer-like. That amused him to no end, and I realized I’d never seen him laugh before. Suddenly he seemed so human. Here I was, prepared to meet Hitler, the one I’d seen and heard — the public Hitler. But this private Hitler was a completely different animal. And oddly enough, this one seemed more authentic, like this was the real Hitler. The whole thing had my head spinning.

He said he was starving and led us into the dining room, where he gestured for me to sit next to him. Göring immediately grabbed a slice of pumpernickel, whereupon Hitler turned to me, gave me an eye roll, then whispered, “Watch. He’ll be done with his entire meal before you’ve taken two bites.” That one really got me. Göring, with his mouth full, asked what was so funny, and Hitler said, “I was just telling him about the time my dog had diarrhea in the Reichstag.” Göring remembered. How could he forget? He loved that story, especially the part where Hitler shot the dog before it got back into the car. Then a beaming Hitler said, “Hey, if I can kill Jews, Gypsies and homosexuals, I can certainly kill a dog!” That perhaps got the biggest laugh of the night — and believe me, there were plenty.

Nice to have a reminder that David is everything (actually liberal, funny, talented) that Maher is not.

The post Curb your enthusiasm (for Donald Trump) appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

Trump crash stonks

Apr. 22nd, 2025 12:01 am
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Posted by Scott Lemieux

Trump decided to threaten once again to fire Jeronme Powell, resulting in the trillion dollar+ loss du jour:

The “sell America” trade intensified on Monday.

President Trump’s threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell exacerbated turmoil wrought by the administration’s trade restrictions and sent stocks plunging. Trump on Monday demanded lower interest rates in a post on social media, saying inflation is trending downward and the economy could slow “unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped around 972 points, and is on pace for its worst April since 1932.

The Trump Depression, we might call this soon.

The dollar hit fresh multiyear lows against the euro and other major currencies. Yields on longer-term Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed. Oil prices slid. Gold rose to a record. 

Threats to Powell’s job marked a new source of uncertainty for investors, who said eroding confidence in the independence of the U.S. central bank could deal a significant blow to the value of stocks, bonds and the dollar. While Trump made similar threats against the Fed in his prior term, investors now worry that tariffs could rekindle pandemic-era inflation, requiring the central bank to keep rates higher, not lower.  

Some worry that recent declines in stocks, bonds and the dollar—which have become known as the sell America trade—point to a shift in capital flows that undermines the U.S.’s longstanding primacy in global markets.

“It is concerning,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, of the broad-based declines. “The bigger issue people are trying to assess: Is the bloom truly off the U.S. exceptionalism trade just in the short run, or is it going to be an intermediate or longer-term factor?”

The Dow industrials fell 2.5%, dropping to 38170. The S&P 500 lost 2.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.6%. 

However, the news is not all bad:

The past few months have been particularly punishing for Tesla, which fell about 5.8% Monday. Its shares have now erased all of their postelection gains and have plummeted 44% in 2025 so far. On Monday, Tesla dropped outside of the largest 10 U.S. companies by market value for the first time since June 2024. 

Tragedy is when I cut my finger, comedy is when Elon Musk loses a shitload of money.

The larger problem with having a Moron-American as president is that while the obvious course of action would be to simply pull back and make it clear that Powell will fill out his term, Trump almost certainly believes that firing Powell would solve the market meltdown rather than exacerbating it. Anyway, congratulations again to the decisive group of voters who put Trump in office because he would be Good for the Economy.

The post Trump crash stonks appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

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